Best-case/Wost-case Percentages & Weights?
I'm a naturally anxious person. I vacillate between thinking I perhaps do have a mild disorder I should see somebody about and thinking it's just a fall-out from my way of thinking and my personality. Of course those two things aren't mutually exclusive, but if I think of it more in terms of the latter than the former, it makes me feel as though I have more agency over it. Lately (and for the past, like, 8-10 years of my life, but particularly lately) I have contemplated just that -- what ways can tinker with my way of thinking that might get me to be less anxious. I've come up with something that I want to try to internalise.
If I don't reflect too heavily on the possible results of an event, my natural disposition is to expect that the worst case scenario will be horrifying and to avoid putting myself in that position. That's called being risk-averse, and I don't remember ever actively deciding to be that kind of person, but it just happened at some point growing up. The "better safe than sorry" mentality is good for keeping oneself safe, but it isn't great for stretching your wings. Of course, it takes more than 30 minutes of rumination to change a natural disposition, but I've thought up a mental framework to help me tackle my dispositions with quick-form reasoning. It's certainly not a new way of thinking to the human race, but it's new to me and it might help to run my decisions through this whenever a new situation arises that I'm tempted to be avoidant about.
Basically what I'll endeavour to do is, when presented with a possibility, run a quick analysis, where I ask myself the following question: "best-case/worst-case percentages & weights?" The point of this is to isolate the best that could happen and the worst that could happen, then assign a percentage for the likelihood it will happen and a 1-10 for how strongly it would affect me if it did happen, with 10 being super strongly.
So, for example, an analysis might go:
Best-case x happens; I give that a 45% chance of happening & a 7 weighting.
Worst-case y happens; I give that a 60% chance of happening & a 5 weighting.
This is a difficult scenario, because the worst-case is 15% more likely to happen, but I'll feel 20% better than I'd feel bad if the best-case happened over the worst. In other words, it's close. But I think I'd go for it, because 5s are survivable on the worst-case side of things. 0-5s are negligible, 5s-7s give you stories, 7s-10s ... maybe you just want to avoid those entirely (unless you're the kind of person that seeks out stories from your own misery). For 7s-10s on the best-case side of things, it's reversed. You probably want to go for those in most scenarios.
Anyway, I like systems to help me keep my emotions in check, so this is one I'm gonna give a shot in the coming weeks and thereafter.
If I don't reflect too heavily on the possible results of an event, my natural disposition is to expect that the worst case scenario will be horrifying and to avoid putting myself in that position. That's called being risk-averse, and I don't remember ever actively deciding to be that kind of person, but it just happened at some point growing up. The "better safe than sorry" mentality is good for keeping oneself safe, but it isn't great for stretching your wings. Of course, it takes more than 30 minutes of rumination to change a natural disposition, but I've thought up a mental framework to help me tackle my dispositions with quick-form reasoning. It's certainly not a new way of thinking to the human race, but it's new to me and it might help to run my decisions through this whenever a new situation arises that I'm tempted to be avoidant about.
Basically what I'll endeavour to do is, when presented with a possibility, run a quick analysis, where I ask myself the following question: "best-case/worst-case percentages & weights?" The point of this is to isolate the best that could happen and the worst that could happen, then assign a percentage for the likelihood it will happen and a 1-10 for how strongly it would affect me if it did happen, with 10 being super strongly.
So, for example, an analysis might go:
Best-case x happens; I give that a 45% chance of happening & a 7 weighting.
Worst-case y happens; I give that a 60% chance of happening & a 5 weighting.
This is a difficult scenario, because the worst-case is 15% more likely to happen, but I'll feel 20% better than I'd feel bad if the best-case happened over the worst. In other words, it's close. But I think I'd go for it, because 5s are survivable on the worst-case side of things. 0-5s are negligible, 5s-7s give you stories, 7s-10s ... maybe you just want to avoid those entirely (unless you're the kind of person that seeks out stories from your own misery). For 7s-10s on the best-case side of things, it's reversed. You probably want to go for those in most scenarios.
Anyway, I like systems to help me keep my emotions in check, so this is one I'm gonna give a shot in the coming weeks and thereafter.
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